Simple Probabilistic Model for the Influence of the Atmosphere on the Earth’s Crust

Ivo Wandrol and Karel Frydrýšek


Atmosphere, Earth’s crust, microseisms, geomechanics, Monte Carlo method, Atmosphere, Earth’s crust, microseisms, geomechanics, Monte Carlo method, 2D stochastic simulation


Traditionally, most scientific publications in this field are focused on how atmospheric changes affect the Earth’s climate. This article takes a less traditional view, addressing the issue of how atmospheric phenomena directly affect the geomechanics of the Earth. Measurement and research of seismic activity includes monitoring the magnitude and temporal/spatial propagation of microseisms in the Earth’s crust, including the hydrosphere. The article describes a simple probabilistic model for the influence of atmospheric phenomena on the mechanics of the Earth’s crust (a plane task involving a thin-walled circular strip (beam) rested on an elastic foundation). Random inputs (i.e. six atmospheric pressure changes along the circumference of the strip with the Earth’s outer radius of 6378 km) were simulated using the Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment method (Monte Carlo method). The results of stochastic simulations (deflection, stresses) demonstrated the mutual relation between microseisms and atmospheric pressure changes. The influence of atmospheric changes on deflection and stress is small; nevertheless, cyclical atmospheric changes may influence the amplitude of the seismic signal. The influence of atmospheric pressure changes correlates with the amplitude of microseisms. This has also been confirmed by measurements at the OKC seismic station in Ostrava–Krásné Pole, Czech Republic.

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