Using Discrete Choice Modelling to Estimate DSM Program Direct Impact and Spillover

Kenneth H. Tiedemann

Keywords

Demand side management, Energy efficiency, Statistical analysis, Statistical and probabilistic modelling

Abstract

This study uses logit models to analyze the impact of participation in the Government of Canada’s EnerGuide for Houses program on installation of energy efficient building shell measures. A major contribution of the paper is that it uses a rigorous statistical framework to examine the role of social interaction in the installation of energy efficiency measures. The key findings are: (1) participants undertook installation of shell measures at statistically significant higher rates than non-participants; (2) the no-spillover model found increased participant installation rates for energy efficient windows, ceiling installation and draft proofing; (3) the spillover model found increased participant and neighbor of participant installation rates for energy efficient windows, ceiling insulation and draft proofing; and (4) for those installing the measures, there were significant electricity and natural gas savings.

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