Modelling Climate Change Effects on Sustainable Transport Facilities through Time Series and Rainfall Trend Analysis of Palapye - Botswana

Adewole S Oladele, Adeniyi F Fagbamigbe, and Thabo M Bafitlhile

Keywords

Modelling, Time series analysis, Transportation

Abstract

The global challenges of climate change especially in Palapye, Botswana have to be addressed to make transport facilities sustainable. Transport facilities such as storm water drainage systems is central to sustainable road transportation networks but needs to be decoupled from impacts of climate change. Data on daily rainfall in Palapye between June 1989 and December 2012 was collected. Daily average rainfall for each of the years was determined to assess fluctuations in the volume of rainfall. The data was classified to 4 quarters in a year (1st January-March; 2nd April-June; 3rd July-September; 4th October-December). Trends in monthly and quarterly variations were assessed. All the estimates were smoothed using moving average methods to determine the time period with the highest peak. The analysis showed an increase in the volume of rainfall between 1989 and 2012 with 2000 having highest volume of downpours. In conclusion, the average daily rainfall in Palapye increased linearly between 1989 and 2012 although there were wide variations across the months and quarters. Most rainfalls occur in quarters 4 and 1 which comprises mainly of November, December, January and February. This research contributes to knowledge as guidance on sustainable transport facilities planning for National Development Plan in Botswana.

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