Evaluation for Development of Superconducting Technologies in Power Sectors using GERT

T. Matsumoto, K. Tokimatsu, T. Kosugi, and H. Yoshida (Japan)


superconducting power application, R&D process analysis, investment strategy, modelling and simulation


Applications of superconductivity technologies in power sectors are expected to contribute to energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction. In this paper, it was evaluated the research and development (R&D) processes for five types of power application technologies using superconductors: i.e., superconducting generator, transformer, cable, magnetic energy storage (SMES) and flywheel. The R&D processes include the developments of superconducting material technologies and technologies for cooling the materials. By using a GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) based method, we have analyzed the completion year of the superconducting power application technologies stochastically. All the evaluated application technology developments were expected to be completed until the year in the range between 2011 and 2014 with relatively high success probabilities of approximately 0.8, except for the 10MWh class SMES technology using 77 K level superconducting material of which completion year is 2020 with a low success probability of 0.39. The developments of superconducting material technologies are more important than those of the cooling technologies for accelerating the development processes of all the application technologies using 77 K level superconducting, except for the superconducting cable technology. The authors believe our evaluation results are suggestive to the R&D strategies for the superconducting power application technologies.

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