Set Confidence Interval for Customer Order Cycle Time in Supply Chain using GERT Method

M. Zanddizari (Iran)


Supply chain management, GERT network, Order cycle time, lead-time, Confidence interval.


Order cycle time is an important issue in supply chain management and Hard to control. It is a set of either deterministic or probabilistic activities. Since order cycle is assumed as a GERT network, has a variable time and a branching probability for each arrow, hence the total cycle time is variable. This paper proposes a new solution technique based on GERT method to control Customer lead-time in a supply chain The proposed method is efficient in estimating mean and variance of the order Cycle time and more accurately confidence interval.

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