Prediction of Malignant Melanoma Incidence

A. Brown and C. Maple (UK)


Epidemiology, Melanoma, Modelling, Regression, Prediction.


There has been a lot of interest in applying modelling techniques cancer statistics for a variety of analytical reasons. Haukulinen and Dyba [4] have applied linear, log-linear and non-linear regression to the problem of predicting incidence rates. In this work we present a review of techniques used and propose a novel approach that can be used for prediction of the incidence of malignant melanoma. The method uses a combination of two regression models, one for total incidence and the other for the age-specific proportion of total incidence. An application of the model is presented which shows very favourable results.

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