Top Down Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation for Financial & Cost Control in Complex Projects

R. Mosca, R. Revetria, and C. Forgia (Italy)


Simulation, Project Management, Meta Modeling, S Curve


In project management practice there are several consolidated methodologies that can be applied to help managers: ranging from PERT to CPM and from S curve analysis to complex software application the field of research seems to be completely explored. Unfortunately in common practice no one of the mentioned technique can be applied easily since the level of detail requested for applying such methodologies is simply too high to be adopted, the resulting practice is, generally, left to the Project Office initiative resulting approximation and lack of control among raising costs. In order to give a formal approach to the problem the authors proposes a simulation based approach in which critical process are top down modeled resulting in a general improvement of the control effectiveness. In the paper this new methodology is described and applied to a real industrial case as well as results discussed.

Important Links:

Go Back