An Adaptive Model for Flood Forecasting on Medium Size Basins

C. Corradini, R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi, and F. Melone (Italy)


Rainfall-runoff, semi-distributedmodelling, real-time forecasting.


A semi-distributed model for real time flood forecasting is presented. It includes a conceptual component, which represents the main physical processes, together with an adaptive component for the correction of flow forecasts as the event progresses in time. The model structure is based on a sub-basin in the upper part of the basin, with discharge known on-line, and an interbasin, where a raingauge network is assumed to operate on-line, divided into elements draining along the main channel. The processes in each interbasin element are described in a lumped form, and all the lateral inflows along the main channel are routed to the basin outlet by a diffusive approach. The adaptive component relies on the estimate of a parameter of the infiltration equations. The model, which was tested using rainfall-runoff events observed on the Tiber River basin at Ponte Felcino located in Central Italy, can be considered useful in the hydrologic practice. Its effectiveness for different accuracy in assessing future rainfall for a lead-time up to 6 h is also investigated.

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