Set Confidence Interval for Customer Order Cycle Time in Supply Chain using GERT Method

M. Zanddizari (Iran)


Supply chain management, GERT network, Order cycle time, leadtime, Confidence interval.


Order cycle time is an important issue in supply chain management and Hard to control. It is a set of either deterministic or probabilistic activities. Since order cycle is assumed as a GERT network, has a variable time and a branching probability for each arrow, hence the total cycle time is variable. This paper proposes a new solution technique based on GERT method to control Customer lead-time in a supply chain The proposed method is efficient in estimating mean and variance of the order Cycle time and more accurately confidence interval.

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