Risk Management of Dangerous Freight using Monte Carlo Simulation: Project and Operation Sides

P. Giribone, F. Oliva, and R. Revetria (Italy)


Risk management, Monte Carlo, dangerous freight, GIS


Risk Management of dangerous freight both inside and outside towns is difficult to assess, especially since there are few data available about accidents and problems. Therefore the available database must be supplemented with a model which could be helpful in the risk analysis, evaluation and mitigation. This paper suggests a new method able to find realistic results even if at the beginning only few fragmentary data are available. In particular, this work introduces a tool joining together a Geographic Information System and a Monte Carlo simulator and which is able to effectively evaluate the danger connected with urban and suburban routes. It can also accurately estimate accident potential effects. Then a real case is described and results are discussed.

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