Forecasting the Market Penetration of Evolving Electric Power Production Technologies

S. Valkealahti and T. Nevaranta (Finland)


Power production, modelling, estimation, forecasting, electric energy cost, and wind power.


Electric power consumption has been globally increasing for decades and the growth speed does no seem to decrease. At the same time the known conventional fossil energy resources are decreasing and, evidently, we will be short of them. On top of that we are facing the serious problem of climate change due to CO2 emission. These kind of giant problems ahead of us have finally raised a serious interest on developing technologies to exploit alternative energy sources. In doing that an essential question is, when these evolving electric power production technologies are competitive on the market. This depends primarily on the development of the evolving technology in question and on the forthcoming cost of the basic electric energy production using conventional primary energy sources. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility to forecast the market diffusion of new evolving electric energy production technologies. The dependence of the market diffusion on technology and energy market variables has been analysed. A simple forecasting method will be presented together with an uncertainty analyzes of the method on the studied variables.

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