Risk Modification through System Dynamics Simulation

L. Baliwangi, H. Arima (Japan), K.B. Artana (Indonesia), and K. Ishida (Japan)


Risk assessment, system dynamics, operationm anagement, maintenance policy


Risk assessment offers several advantages to management. It enables to identify the likely causes ofs ystem failures and it provides a basis for thei dentification of appropriate management strategies to reduce the overall risk for a given designed operationc ondition, either through preventative or mitigation strategies. Doing risk assessment once is often conducted therefore it may be valid in short time period only since a non-critical component could become a critical component after sometime. Further, to modify the risk ofs ystem under different operation conditions and maintenance policies, a system dynamics simulation isn ecessitated since system dynamics concerns a system’sd ynamic behavior over time under various conditions.T his paper is addressed to provide a user friendly tool tos imulate the system risk under some designed decisions both operation condition and maintenance policy. Ther esult of a better understand of system behavior depend on operation and maintenance policy is well expected.

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