Determinants of Energy Sector Performance in Iraq, 2003 to 2005

K.H. Tiedemann (Canada)

Keywords

Timeseries models, least squares estimation, maximum likelihood estimation.

Abstract

Rehabilitating the energy sector in Iraq has been a major objective of the Coalition from 2003 through 2005, with more than $5 billion in Iraqi, U.S. and other Coalition partner funds devoted to this effort. The energy sector rehabilitation program has focussed on three objectives: restoring Iraq’s electricity and oil infrastructure and production to pre-war levels; delivering electricity and refined fuels for domestic consumption; and delivering electricity and oil security. The insurgency has attempted to limit Coalition success in meeting these three objectives. This study provides an analysis of the impact of Coalition efforts and insurgent activities on energy sector performance using time-series models. The study finds that while Coalition investments have significantly improved energy sector performance while insurgent attacks have significantly retarded energy sector progress.

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