Forecasting Market Participant Behavior in Power Market

B. Kashanizadeh, M. Ehsan, and M.F. Firuzabad (Iran)


Market simulation, oligopoly, market power, game theory, cournot game


Genco's offering strategies could change SCUC convergence; as a result, generation plants profit is adjusted. The minimum profit alteration with production changeless, defined as discrete strategies. Here, different discrete strategy base on marginal cost was tested and compare with other strategies. Revenue was calculated with game theory method to find Nash equilibrium as mix game; then, market power indices was estimated. These models help ISO to simulate power market and analyze it before markets occurred. Because of uncertainty in producer's strategy, model was implemented in probabilistic pivotal strategy and finally checked simulation on IEEE 30 buses test case system and market power indices calculated and the result show how players affect market and which probable strategy lead to market power abuse.

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