A Performance-based Markov Modelling for Reliability Evaluation of Competitive Electricity Markets

A. Ehsani, A.M. Ranjbar, and M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad (Iran)


Reliability, deregulation, Markov modeling, and performance indices


In the new deregulated environment of electric power utility industry, new system reliability criteria and analytical tools are required. This paper proposes an analytical probabilistic model for reliability evaluation of competitive electricity markets. The market reliability is evaluated by using Markov state space diagram. Since the market is a continuously operated system, the concept of absorbing states is applied to it in order to evaluate the reliability. The market states are identified by using market performance indices and the transition rates are calculated by using historical data. To illustrate interesting feature of the proposed methodology, a case study is carried out over a test system.

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