Comparison of Dynamical and Classical Estimation Methods for Wind Production

F. Valle, J. Lobry, and O. Deblecker (Belgium)


Power system modeling, Weibull distributions, Wind energy.


Wind power penetration is expected to be largely increased in a near future. Nevertheless, due to the high variability of wind production, the increase of the installed capacity with that renewable energy could sometimes lead to a stopping of non adjustable power plants if the planning of those units was still decided without considering a realistic estimation of the available wind potential. In that way, and as it is illusory to imagine that all the installed wind capacity will always be produced, this article proposes two methods to compute an estimation of global wind production for the predictive peak load covering process. Those models are respectively based on the definition of a “zero wind production” number of hours and on the introduction of an “operating at installed capacity” equivalent time for the global wind production. To be compared, both methods were then applied for the estimation of wind production in an entire country. Finally, note that, here, the simulation cases are limited to the Belgian production park.

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