Seismic Risk and Reliability for Rural Road Network

S. Cafiso (Italy)


Risk assessment approaches and methodologies, Risk mapping, road network, seismic risk


Essential services for road users as well as for several kind of human activity are strongly dependent from road network that, for this reason, is considered a “lifeline” as one of the essential linear infrastructures for human life. The paper presents the methodology framework for the evaluation of the seismic risk and reliability of the rural road network. The model used to define the risk level of the road lifelines is based on the product of three factors: area seismic hazard; road link seismic exposure; bridge seismic vulnerability and expected damage. Network Reliability mainly measures network performance related to its capability to oppose or react against the failure of single elements. Network Reliability is estimated in terms of Encountered Reliability and Terminal Reliability: ENCOUNTERED RELIABILITY can be defined as “the probability of not encountering a link degradation on the path with least (expected) cost”; TERMINAL RELIABILITY is “the probability that nodes are connected, i.e. it is possible to reach the destination. The methodology has been designed for applications based on Geographic Information System (GIS). Same case studies are presented that highlight the possibility of a preventive estimation of towns and links that present different levels of Risk.

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