The Dynamic Econometric Analysis on the International Short-Term Capital Inflow of China

J. Cai, X. Hui, and J. Wang (PRC)


International short-term capital inflows, forcing factors, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, Error Correction Model


International short-term capital inflow means the risk of investment is enlarging as the characteristic of high liquidity and profitable aiming. For the purpose of ensuring the steady development of our economic and finance, the scale of International short-term capital inflow must be estimated with much certainty; the forcing factors will be valued following behind. The paper chooses the forcing factors including the differences between PMB and US dollar,the expectation RMB exchange rate, inflation, the rate of macroeconomic increasing, foreign direct investment,the return rate of security market and the police factor by using the monthly data from Sep. 2003 to Dec.2008 based on the view of dynamic econometric analysis to ensure the size of International short-term capital inflow establishing the model named Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and Error Correction Model which reason is to adjust the exiting police to avoid risk effectively.

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