Development of Methodology for Assessment of Reliability of Pipeline Networks

Sigitas Rimkevicius, Algirdas Kaliatka, Mindaugas Valincius, Gintautas Dundulis, Albertas Grybenas, and Inga Žutautaite-Šeputiene


Reliability, Network, Energy supply, Security of Supply


The aim of the work presented in this paper is to develop a common scientific methodology for assessment of reliability of the pipeline networks energy systems. The energy systems considered in this paper are district heating, gas and oil supply networks. The reliability of all these systems depends on the degradation mechanisms and structural integrity of pipes. Structural integrity is influenced by loadings, defined by thermalhydraulic processes. The reliability of these systems also depends on reliability of the installed equipment and the supply source. A common initial version of methodology for all pipeline network systems was prepared and the fundamentals and principles of separate components and models of this methodology were developed. The reliability of pipeline networks is treated as complex task. Consequently, the developed methodology includes three types of analyses – probabilistic mathematical, deterministic thermalhydraulic and deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analyses. Although the original intention is to apply the developed methodology for the assessment of the reliability of the Lithuanian energy systems, in general, the methodology is applicable for any pipeline network system in any country.

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