Zesco Generation System Adequacy Assessment for the Period 2009-2030 using Probabilistic Approach

Mabvuto Mwanza, Nabina Pradhan, and Navaraj Karki


generation system adequacy assessment, analytical method, generation system reliability


Generation adequacy assessment of electrical power systems is vital in ensuring proper decision making in generation expansion planning and system operations in the face of stochastic system performance such as equipment failures and variations of generation and load. This paper presents the results of generation adequacy assessment of the Zesco generation system using the probabilistic approach. The system is analyzed under several scenarios in order to investigate the effect of each of these scenarios on the reliability of the system. The analytical method is applied to evaluate the stochastic system performance and reliability indices. In this study, the generation adequacy of the Zesco generation system was assessed considering the existing and the future generation capacity. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to assess the adequacy of Zesco generation system to meet the load requirements taking into consideration the existing and forecasted electricity demand. The results show that Zesco system was not very adequate in 2009 to meet the load requirements. On the other hand, the system is will be adequate in 2020 after addition of new generation capacity of 1280MW.

Important Links:

Go Back