A Photovoltaic Output Backcast and Forecast Method based on Cloud Cover and Historical Data

Damilola Owoeye, Maxim Shcherbakov, and Valeriy Kamaev


photovoltaic output forecast, backcast technique, clustering, kmeans


Owing to the fact that input data for existing PV forecast algorithms are hard to come by, there is the need to develop a method based on data that is relatively easy to obtain and one with a much simpler algorithm which still produces acceptable results. This paper proposes a method for photovoltaic output backcast and forecast using cloud cover and historical data. The method is about five times more efficient than the benchmark model.

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