Applied Forecasting of Short-Term Natural Gas Consumption

Primož Potočnik and Edvard Govekar


forecasting, short-term, energy consumption, natural gas


Natural gas consumption forecasting is required to balance the supply and consumption of natural gas. Forecasting results for a larger gas distributing and district heating company in Slovenia are discussed in the paper. Based on only two years of data, the short-term forecasting model was developed for daily and hourly natural gas consumption forecasting with the horizon up to 48 hours. The average mean absolute error (MAE) obtained during the three winter seasons of operation (2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010) in daily resolution amounts to MAE = 3.15 % of the maximum transport capacity of the distribution system. This result enables the company to increase savings as defined by the economic incentive model. The results are very encouraging and confirm the applicability of such an approach.

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