Reliability based Water Supply Management Model

N. Wanakule and C.M. Mok (USA)


Stochastic Optimization, Water Resources Management, Reliability and Uncertainty, Groundwater


Tampa Bay Water has been using deterministic optimization model to manage wellfield operations for its water supply system since January 1999. The model objective is to maintain the sustainability of the ecological resources, mainly wetlands and lakes, while satisfy the growing demands of portable water in the Northern Tampa Bay Region of Florida. The recent completion of the surface water enhancement project components added complexity into current management model due to the uncertainty nature of the new added supply sources. A new on-going project was initiated in 2003 to study the current model formulation and to develop a stochastic optimization approach for managing the integrated surface and ground water sources considering various uncertainty variables. These variables include forecasted water demands, projected surface water availability, predicted groundwater responses by an integrated surface and ground water simulation model, and estimates precipitation and evaporation rates from off-stream reservoir. This paper discusses some details on the modeling framework of this new reliability based water supply management model.

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