Modeling Risk and Simulation-based Optimization of Channel Depths at Cam Pha Coal Port

N.M. Quy, J.K. Vrijling, P.H.A.J.M. Gelder, and R. Groenveld


Ship grounding, risk modeling, simulation, and entrance channel.


This paper presents a simulation-based method and a risk model of ship grounding for a long-term optimization of channel depths. The long-term optimization of channel depths should be considered a two-stage process: Firstly, establishing a ship entrance guidance to facilitate a required navigation safety with respect to an acceptable risk of ship grounding due to wave impacts. As basis for such guidance, ship motion responses are defined as a function of the sea state (described by significant wave height Hs and wave period T2) and the transit condition (ship speed V and ship draft T). Secondly, using the Monte Carlo method and based on the established accessibility policy, a simulation model is developed to define a safe underkeel clearance allowance for ship entrance and simultaneously determine downtimes that correspond to an acceptable grounding risk for a specified ship and a generated sea state. The final results derived from the simulation model can be considered as the key parameters in analysis and selection of an optimal depth. The approach was applied to the entrance channel of Cam Pha Coal Port, Vietnam as a case study.

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